cryptoearninggamesios| The main contract for ferrosilicon is 7190 yuan/ton: supply is steadily rising, downstream demand is picking up, and prices are fluctuating

Newsletter summary

The main contract of ferrosilicon rose 0.Cryptoearninggamesios.76%CryptoearninggamesiosWith a revenue of 7190 yuan per ton, the cost of blue carbon has been alleviated, the immediate production cost of ferrosilicon has decreased, the sample operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased to 32.60%, the weekly demand of ferrosilicon has increased to 20754.9 tons, the demand of steel mills has rebounded, the price shock is expected to run, and pay attention to the 7300 pressure level.

Text of news flash

[ferrosilicon futures prices rise, market pays attention to supply and demand dynamics]

The ferrosilicon futures market performed strongly yesterday, with the price of the main contract rising 0.76% to close at 7190 yuan / ton, while its position decreased by 7824 hands. In terms of warehouse receipts, the number of Fesi warehouse receipts reached 17344, an increase of 192 over the previous trading day, while the effective forecast decreased by 332 to 517.

Spot prices in major producing areas are stable, with ferrosilicon prices of 6850 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia and 6800 yuan / ton in Qinghai. In terms of trade quotation, the price of 72 ferrosilicon qualified blocks in Henan is 7200 yuan / ton, the price in Jiangsu is slightly higher, 7300 yuan / ton, and the price in Tianjin is 7270 yuan / ton.

The Lanchan carbon market has shown a stable and strong trend recently, the decline in the auction price of Shaanxi Coal Mine has reduced the cost of Lanchan carbon, and the price of small materials in Fugu area is in the range of 90-1000 yuan / ton. The operating rate of orchid charcoal this week was 49.94%, down 1.42% from last week. The gross profit of orchid charcoal production on Friday was-151.9 yuan / ton.

In terms of production cost, the immediate production cost is 6102 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6206 yuan / ton in Qinghai and 6162 yuan / ton in Ningxia.

On the supply side, the operating rate of the sample of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises across the country was 32.60%, an increase of 2.09% over the previous period, with an average daily output of 14063 tons, an increase of 600tons, and a weekly output of 98000 tons. Due to the accelerated resumption of production by ferrosilicon manufacturers, especially in Ningxia and Shaanxi, there is still room for growth on the supply side.

On the demand side, the weekly demand for ferrosilicon, the five major steel grades, reached 20754.9 tons, an increase of 0.43% over the previous week. The total output of the five major steel products was 8.8779 million tons, an increase of 80700 tons from the previous month, and the total inventory was 18.8461 million tons, down 444200 tons from the previous month. Of this total, social inventory was 13.8919 million tons, down 254100 tons, while in-plant inventory was 4.9542 million tons, down 190100 tons from the previous month. The apparent demand was 9.3021 million tons, an increase of 413800 tons over the previous month.

The metal magnesium market shows a weak and stable operation trend, and the transaction situation is poor. 99.90% of magnesium ingots in Shaanxi Province are quoted for 18300-18500 yuan in cash including tax, and the mainstream transaction price is 18300 yuan / ton. Other areas such as Shanxi Wenxi magnesium ingots ex-factory cash including tax prices are in the range of 18500-18600 yuan / ton, with the market to adjust slightly.

From the market point of view, due to the improvement of manufacturers' profits, the supply side is rising steadily and the speed of resuming production is accelerating. On the demand side, due to the low inventory in the trade link and the acceleration of the resumption of production by steel mills, the production order of ferrosilicon manufacturers may appear mismatch between supply and demand in the short term. Hegang bid to enter the market, the quantity is flat, the market is paying close attention to the follow-up pricing. Non-steel demand remains stable, magnesium metal downstream is insufficient to follow up, and prices have fallen; although ferrosilicon exports continue to improve, the rise in spot prices may affect the current export competitive advantage. On the cost side, the short-term performance of Lanchan is strong, but due to the decline in the auction price of Shaanxi Coal Mine, the high cost of Lanchan has been alleviated. Comprehensive analysis, the relationship between supply and demand of ferrosilicon has improved, the downstream market sentiment is being repaired, the demand of steel mills has rebounded, the cost end remains stable, and the price of ferrosilicon is expected to maintain a volatile operation trend. The main contract price range refers to 6500-7200 yuan / ton, 7300 yuan / ton as the pressure level of concern.