baccaratrouge540| Soybean meal: RS flood recedes, where should we go?

Source: Zijin Tianfeng Futures Research Institute

Core point: shock May USDA report laid the loose tone of supply and demand for new soybean crops, but affected by the rise in neighboring Chi Mei soybean oil, the main force of CBOT soybeans still rose slightly after the release of the report. As of 5Baccaratrouge540.13, the discount of the United States Bay and Brazil fell slightly in recent months, Argentina rose, Brazil made a profit return in recent months, and bought more ships as of the 5.7 week. Affected by the production loss in Brazil, the period of soybean meal has risen after May Day. The drought index in the United States is lower than in the same period last year, it is expected to be hot and rainy in the coming week, and the estimated acreage of new crops is still at 86.51 million acres. As of 5.12, the sowing progress of Meidou was 35%, less than the 39% expected by Reuters. There is still selling pressure in Brazil, and the flooding has receded, but it continues to be wet. The excellent and good rate in Argentina has dropped by 2%, and continue to pay attention to the weather. Domestic soybean imports to Hong Kong decreased month-on-month, the port soybean storage, the number of soybean to Hong Kong from May to July is large, the domestic start-up crushing rebounded, the oil factory soybean meal stock is tired, the purchasing mood is weak. M09 reference range 3500-3600 yuan / ton.

Spot basis difference: neutral 5.10 East China spot basis difference 09-160 yuan / ton, slightly weaker than before the festival, affected by the flood losses in Brazil, are now rising in the post-holiday period. The follow-up supply pressure is great, the procurement is light, and the basis is still expected to weaken.

Us soybeans: more neutral than the estimated acreage of new cropping is still at 86.51 million acres. As of 5.12, the sowing progress of adzuki beans was 35% (up 10% month-on-month, compared with 45% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 34%), less than the 39% expected by Reuters. The drought index is good, and the weather is expected to be high and rainy in the coming week. CBOT soybean management fund short positions left a large number of brewing long mood. Net sales of American beans have improved this week, and the cumulative export progress has been slow.

South American soybeans: neutral as of 5.5, Brazilian soybean harvest progress of 94.3% RS75%. The progress of harvest is still faster than that of sales. The RS flood receded, but continued to be wet. The excellent and good rate in Argentina dropped by 2% this week, and the temperature in the main producing provinces is expected to be suitable.

Arrival inventory: neutral air this week, the number of soybeans arriving in Hong Kong decreased month-on-month, the port soybean storage, May-July is expected to arrive at the port a large number.

Start-up crushing: neutral oil plant start-up crushing rose slightly this week and is expected to continue to rise next week.

Consumer inventory: neutral short purchase mood is weak, oil factory soybean meal accumulation bank. Terminal pig stock decline, breeding profits are not as good as the same period last year, there are long-standing concerns about soybean meal consumption.

America

USDA supply and demand report for May

After the release of the report, the main force of US beans rose slightly (1219 cents / pu), mainly following the trend of US soybean oil futures, and it is said that the United States will raise import duties on waste cooking oil.

Inventory at the end of the period increased by 30 per cent to 445 million PS.

The production capacity of cottonbeans has been continuously improved. It is estimated that the crushing capacity of adzuki beans in 25 is estimated to be 2.425 billion cattails, an increase of 125 million cattails over the same period last year.

Climatic Analysis of Spring sowing of American Bean 24x25

As of 5.12, the sowing progress of adzuki beans was 35% (up 10% month-on-month, compared with 45% in the same period last year, with a five-year average of 34%), less than the 39% expected by Reuters.

5.7, the proportion of arid areas in the main producing areas of American beans is 11% (down 6% from the previous month, compared with 21% in the same period last year).

The weather in the main producing areas of American beans is expected to be high-temperature and rainy in the coming week (5.18-5.22).

Manage fund positions: a large number of short sellers leave the market, brewing a long mood

As of May 10, 2024, the long position of CBOT soybean fund was 79591 hands, compared with 51967 hands the week before last.Baccaratrouge540Short positions were 21044 hands, up from 201203 the week before last week; net long positions were-41453 hands, compared with-149236 hands last week.

5.13, the main force of Meidou is 1214.5 cents per cattail.

Net sale of beautiful beans

For the whole world: in the week of 5.3, the net sales of Midea Bean 23plash in 24 years were 429000 tons (an increase of 15000 tons compared with the previous month).

To China: in the week of May 2nd, the net sales of new works were 18000 tons.

Meidou export: the export progress is slow, and the weekly export increases.

To the whole world: export 304400 tons in the week of 5.3 (269000 tons in the week before last). The cumulative export + unexecuted is 42.33 million tons, the export progress is 88.6%, the export progress is slow, and the progress is 91.5% in the same period last year.

To China: 91500 tons were exported to China in the same week (9064 tons the week before last). 23 exports to China in 24 + unexecuted 23.84 million tons (down from 31.17 million tons in the same period last year).

Brazil, Argentina

Report on supply and demand of USDA in May: production increase of new crops in Brazil

The first estimate for 24x25 Brazilian soybean production was 169 million tons, an increase of 15 million tons year-on-year, and exports increased by 3 million tons to 105 million tons.

In terms of old crops, pay attention to the results of the Conab production survey released at 8: 00 p.m. on May 14, the current value is 146.5 million tons. Due to the flood damage caused by RS, it is possible to reduce the output. P á tria Agroneg ó cios estimated that Brazil's soybean production in 2023 Compact 2024 was 142.82 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 143.18 million tons. According to the company, the loss of soybeans caused by recent floods in southern Brazil is estimated at 2.4 million tons.

Harvest progress of Croton: the harvest progress is still faster than the sales progress.

As of 5.5, the harvest progress in Brazil has reached 94.3% and 75% of the total. The sales progress is 52%.

RS precipitation: flood fades, but continues to be wet

The rainfall of RS is 50-75mm higher than the average level. It will continue to be wet for the next two weeks.

Report on supply and demand of USDA in May: production increase of new crops in Argentina

It is estimated that 24x25 production will increase by 1 million tons year-on-year to 51 million tons, increase soybean crushing capacity by 4.5 million tons to 40 million tons, and export volume by 900000 tons to 55 million tons.

Argentine soybean: excellent and good rate dropped by 2% to 27%

As of 5.8, the excellent and good rate of Argentine soybeans was 27%, compared with 29% last week and only 5% in the same period last year. The soil moisture content is 84%, the same as the week before last, and only 57% in the same period last year.

According to the Stock Exchange, the progress of soybean harvest in Argentina is 36.2%, compared with 25.5% a week ago, with a five-year average of 48%.

The progress of selling is about 25%.

Precipitation in Argentina: suitable climate for the main producing provinces

The climate of the main producing provinces is suitable in the past week. In the coming week, there will be precipitation of 15-25mm higher than the average level in some parts of the province, while the northeast of Santa Fe will be dry.

Temperature Forecast in Argentina: obvious warming trend

GFS and EC models show that the main soybean producing provinces in Argentina will experience warming in the coming week.

China

USDA supply and demand report for May

China's imports in 24x25 will be increased by 4 million tons to 109 million tons compared with the same period last year, and the crushing volume will be increased by 4 million tons to 103 million tons over the same period last year.

Now: the market is rising, the basis is weakening slightly.

Soybean meal: on May 10th, the current price of soybean meal is 2409-160 yuan / ton (East China), slightly weaker than before the festival.

5.13th M2409 charges 3559 yuan / ton, 5.6th M09 charges 3478 yuan / ton. Mainly affected by the RS flood in Brazil, M09 opened high after the holiday.

Place of origin discount: us Bay, Brazil fell slightly

As of 5.13, the recent monthly discount for soybeans in Mei Wan, Brazil and Argentina was 59 cents per cattail (72 cents per cattail the week before), 7 cents per cattail (12 cents per cattail in the previous week), and 10 cents per cattail (6 cents in the previous week).

Progress of ship purchase in recent months

As of 5.7, the May shipping date has been fully purchased, and the ship purchase progress from June to August is 74.7%, 16.1% and 3% respectively, and the purchase progress is slow compared with the same period last year, especially in July and August.

Buying a boat and squeezing profits

As of 5.7, the May shipping date has been fully purchased, and the ship purchase progress from June to August is 74.7%, 16.1% and 3% respectively, and the purchase progress is slow compared with the same period last year, especially in July and August. The planned purchase of 9.8 million tons in June this year is more than 20 per cent higher than last year and the year before last. The estimated purchases for June and July this week are 33 and 200000 tons higher than last week, respectively, and the August shipping date is reduced by 200000 tons. Recent boat buying is very popular. 5.7 Brazil added 20, 40 and 2 ships from June to August in the week.

Recently, Brazil has made a good profit in recent months (without deducting processing fees).

Soybean arrival volume and port inventory: month-on-month decrease in port arrival, port soybean accumulation

Soybean arrivals: up to the week of May 10th, domestic soybean arrivals were 1.755 million tons, compared with 2.34 million tons the week before last, and decreased month-on-month. It is estimated that 9.0025 million tons will arrive in May, 11.2 million tons in June and 10 million tons in July.

Soybean port inventory: as of the week of May 10th, the national port soybean inventory was 5.6138 million tons, an increase of 165300 tons over the previous week, and an increase of 1.1441 million tons over the same period last year.

Press start-up: the oil plant starts the press to pick up

As of the week of May 10, the actual crushing capacity of soybeans in the 125 oil plants was 1.7991 million tons, with an operating rate of 51% (compared with 1.7165 million tons in the week before last, with an operating rate of 49%).

The opening rate of domestic oil plants is expected to increase next week, and the soybean crushing capacity of oil plants is expected to be 1.9371 million tons, with an opening rate of 55%.

Consumer inventory: weak purchasing mood, accumulation of soybean meal

Pick up: as of the week of 5.6, the volume of soybean meal delivery was 1.34 million tons, which was flat compared with the previous week.

Days of physical inventory of feed enterprises: the number of days of physical inventory is 6.94 days, slightly lower than that of the week before.

Inventory: as of the week of May 10, soybean meal stocks were 559200 tons, an increase of 34100 tons, or 6.49 percent, over last week, and an increase of 353000 tons over the same period last year.

Downstream culture

Profits from pig farming: some improvement

As of 5.10 weeks, the profit of purchased piglets was 96.25 yuan (73.6 yuan), and the profit of self-breeding was-43.97 yuan (- 55.93 yuan).

Profits from poultry farming: improvement

By the end of the week of 5.10, the weekly profit of raising hairy chickens was-1.52 yuan per chicken and-2.16 yuan per chicken last week. The weekly breeding profit of parent breeder chicken was 0.4 yuan per chicken, compared with 0.38 yuan per chicken last week. The weekly profit of laying hens was 11.41 yuan, which was 10.33 yuan higher than that of last week.