simplecarcrashphysicssim| Chuangjin Hexin Fund Zhang Hezhang: Short-term and long-term bond yields are more certain, short-term bond funds may perform relatively better

Since 2024, the bond market has emerged as a whole.SimplecarcrashphysicssimA bull market, short-term debt funds and other sound investment varieties have attracted market attention. Data at the end of the first quarter showed that the size of short-term debt funds increased by nearly 200 billion yuan this year, breaking through 1.Simplecarcrashphysicssim2 trillion yuan. What are the reasons for the increase in the size of short-term debt funds? What kind of investors are short-term debt funds suitable for? What is the investment value of short-term debt funds? How is the bond market going? Zhang Hezhang, head of the credit research department of Chuangjin Hexin Fund and manager of Chuangjin Hexin Rihang short debt Fund, said that increased investment demand, product risk-return characteristics in line with the needs of the public, convenience for redemption and other factors have promoted the growth of the scale of short-term debt funds.

Zhang Hezhang believes that short-term bond funds are more suitable for investors with low risk preference, investors with short-term capital allocation needs, and investors with large types of asset allocation. He expects the short-term bond market to be volatile, with relatively high certainty in medium-and short-term bonds, and short-term bond funds may perform relatively better in the next 1-2 quarters.

1. Please analyze the reasons why the scale of the short-term debt fund has broken through the trillion yuan mark.

Zhang Hezhang: there are three main reasons: first, the demand for investment is increasing. Domestic investors used to invest mainly in deposits, real estate, bank wealth management, stocks, equity funds, bond funds, etc., with the continuous reduction of deposit interest rates, under the influence of the overall risk aversion in the market, residents have reduced their investment in real estate, stocks, equity funds and other aspects, and the investment demand for sound bank financial management and short-term debt funds has increased.

Secondly, the yield and risk characteristics of short-term debt funds meet the needs of the public. Short-term bond funds do not invest in equity assets, generally speaking, the duration of their portfolio is also short, the characteristics of risk and return are between monetary funds and long-term pure debt funds, and the interest rate risk is relatively low.

Finally, the short-term debt fund is convenient for redemption, which has the characteristics of lower initial purchase amount and relatively lower risk. For relatively short-term bank deposits, from historical data, the returns of short-term bond funds are more attractive and can better meet the liquidity needs of investors, and some short-term bond funds have a share of redemption-free fees for seven days. It reduces the cost of short-term holding by investors.

2. Does the recent turmoil in the bond market have an impact on the size of short-term bond funds?

Zhang Hezhang: since 2024, the bond market as a whole has come out of the bull market, but there has been a certain adjustment in mid-early March and late April, but because the adjustment time is short and the market is stable very quickly, the bank's "manual interest payment" has been stopped gradually since April, and we can see that there has been a "deposit relocation". The performance-to-price ratio of short-term debt funds is highlighted, which has no obvious impact on the scale of short-term debt funds.

3. What are the investment opportunities in the bond market at the present time?

Zhang Hezhang: at present, the main factors that have a great impact on the bond market are: the issuing rhythm of local government special bonds, whether there are special refinancing bonds issued by local governments and the issuing rhythm; the effect of real estate regulation and control policies and stock real estate digestion policies; the sustainability of macroeconomic fundamentals improvement.

After the disclosure of the financial data in April, there are different voices in the market, but I don't think we can be pessimistic about the economy on this basis. Based on the next economic fundamentals, monetary policy, institutional behavior and other aspects of the study, the bond market is expected to show volatility, the certainty of medium-and short-term bonds is relatively high, in the next 1-2 quarters, the performance of short-term debt funds may be relatively better.

4. How to treat the investment value of short-term debt funds? What kind of investors are more suitable for?

Zhang Hezhang: standing at the present time, short-term debt funds still have good investment value, which is mainly reflected in the following three aspects:

First, earnings are relatively robust. As short-term bond funds mainly invest in short-term bonds, and the price fluctuation of short-term bonds is relatively small, from a historical point of view, short-term bond funds show the characteristics of robust returns as a whole. In the current market environment, short-term bond funds have relatively low risk and can provide relatively stable returns.

Second, low volatility. From the historical data, the volatility of short-term bond funds is relatively low, and the holding experience of investors is relatively stable. Under the background of the continuous volatility of the equity market, the low volatility of short-term bond funds is attractive to most investors.

Finally, liquidity is good. For the short-term bond fund without holding period, it has good liquidity, and investors can flexibly redeem it when needed to meet their own capital needs.

Generally speaking, short-term debt funds are more suitable for investors with low risk preference, investors with short-term capital allocation needs, and have better investment value for investors who want to do asset allocation.