moniwarcrypto| Gangtise Investment Research Daily| 2024-05-15

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-- Manufacturing | Technology (5)--

[railway locomotive] analysts said that 2024Q1's national railway fixed asset investment reached 124.8 billion yuan, an increase of 9% over the same period last year.Moniwarcrypto.9%. The State Council has issued an action plan for large-scale equipment renewal, which is expected to speed up the upgrading of national railway locomotives.MoniwarcryptoThe progress of. At present, National RailwayMoniwarcryptoThe number of locomotives is about 2. 5%Moniwarcrypto140,000, of which there are about 7300 diesel locomotives. It is expected that by 2027, most of the old diesel locomotives will be replaced. The market scale of locomotive class 5 repair in 2023 is 58.9 billion yuan, and it is estimated that the market scale will reach about 74 billion yuan in 2024.

The central government and local governments are expected to share the funding for the vehicle-road coordination project, and the central government may issue treasury bonds to raise funds, analysts said. At present, the hardware cost of each base station of Smart Road is about 200000 yuan, and the total construction cost is about 300000 yuan. Take Beijing as an example, if you want to complete the construction of vehicle-road coordination infrastructure, the total investment is 30-5 billion yuan. It is estimated that by 2025, the proportion of high-level wisdom will reach 1%.

[excavator] experts said that at present, overseas excavator head enterprises are in the inventory clearance stage, and the inventory cycle is expected to drop from 6 to 12 months in 2023H2 to 1 to 2 months in 2024Q3, while second-tier enterprises (such as Zoomlion and Shanhe Intelligence) are in the stage of continuing to build inventory overseas, with inventory levels of 3 to 4 months as of April 2024. The export volume is expected to be 9-100000 units in 2024. Domestic excavator sales in March and April increased by 9% and 13% respectively compared with the same period last year, fully indicating that domestic excavator demand exceeded expectations. It is estimated that the entire demand side of excavators will increase by nearly 30% in 2024 compared with the same period last year, and domestic excavator sales will increase by 0% over the same period last year.

[photovoltaic] analysts revealed that the total scheduled production of modules in the photovoltaic industry is expected to be 55~56GW in May 2024, down 2~3GW from April. The concentration of leaders in each link has increased, with the top five enterprises in the component industry accounting for 6265% of the total output, compared with about 50% in the same period in 2023. The operating rate of leading wafer manufacturers is over 90%, that of integrated component enterprises is 85% 90%, and that of specialized wafer enterprises is 30% and 70%. The output of plastic film and glass remained at the April level, with an operating rate of about 80% in leading enterprises and 6070% in second-tier enterprises. The price of polysilicon has fallen sharply since early April, and the current average price is less than 40 yuan / Kg, while the price of n-type granular silicon is also maintained at about 40 yuan / Kg. New technologies such as 0BB, tungsten wire and granular silicon have all made progress, and the technical route of 0BB has made the fastest progress. In addition, a number of manufacturers have produced large-scale perovskite products with conversion efficiency of more than 20%, and there may be several GW production lines in 2025.

[bus] experts said that 2547 buses were invited in 2024Q1 Europe (excluding the UK), 99 per cent of which were trams, compared with 447 in Europe in April. In 2023, the annual bidding volume of passenger cars in the UK is 1383 and that of 2024Q1 is about 700. The total bidding volume of passenger cars 8 meters and above in Europe in 2023 is 10819, of which the number of new energy buses is about 9400, and it is expected to be 12000,000,15,000 in 2024.

-- consumption | Medical and health care (1)--

Experts said that the current rapid rise in European freight rates is mainly driven by the improvement on the demand side, especially the good situation in the export of core commodities such as automobiles and new energy, as well as the replenishment cycle in European and American markets and the strong demand for white household appliances. These factors lead to the shortage of spot positions, and European freight rates are expected to rise and fall easily in the short term, especially from mid-to-late May to June, and the traditional peak season is approaching. However, it should be noted that the contract price is high in August 2024, but the shipper chooses to advance the peak season due to freight rate problems and shortage of capacity, which may lead to the advance of shipment of goods originally scheduled for the end of July or August, thus affecting the volume of the August contract. In addition, after geopolitical relaxation, transport companies will observe for one to two months after confirming the safety of the route, and then gradually resume navigation after ensuring peace and security.

-- Materials | Energy (2)--

[coal] according to experts, 2024Q1 coal production in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia both increased by about 9 million tons compared with the same period last year. The demand for Q2 coal market has declined, mainly due to the fact that hydropower generation is better than the same period last year. From January to April, the electricity generation of the whole society increased by 8.2% compared with the same period last year, and hydropower generation increased by 10.1%.

[titanium concentrate] analysts said that in the short term, the operating rate of the titanium industry is high, and the demand for titanium dioxide is hot for better production, driving the demand for titanium concentrate. Titanium concentrate inventory is relatively low, the new supply is limited, titanium concentrate prices are expected to continue to rise. In the long run, titanium concentrate resources are relatively scarce. It is estimated that the difference between supply and demand of domestic titanium concentrate industry will be-4.4777 million tons in 2025, and a large number of imports will be needed to make up for the gap between supply and demand. In the future, titanium concentrate prices are expected to remain high for a long time, and there is the possibility of continuing to rise.

-- Finance | Infrastructure (1)--

[real estate] analysts said that at present, the allocation of foreign capital to the real estate sector has increased significantly, with foreign ownership accounting for about 1.76% of the real estate sector on April 24 and rising to 2.02% on May 7. At present, the policy on the demand side of the industry is loose and foreign capital enters the market, and it is expected that after the market picks up, the cash flow pressure of housing enterprises may be reduced.